1. Rob Bonta will move on to the November election as one of the top 2.
I hope Guillen gets the second spot because I think he is the best alternative to Bonta. I fear that Bonta is the best choice. Given his lack of courage, his complacency, and his lack of curiosity about so many things, that would be a disappointment. I”m pretty sure he is the superior choice to Joel Young so if Young places second then I have no choice but Bonta in November.
2. Measure C will be defeated.
I am guessing about 55-60% in support with Measure A as my baseline. I am guessing a loss of 15-20 support from people who just are fed up with the City financial situation. Offsetting this loss will be a 5-10% gain from people who want their favorite project funded whether it makes fiscal sense in the overall picture or not. Arguing that this is reserved money for projects that have no funding and should be considered independent of the general mess which the Council has made is ridiculous because the obvious reason no funding is possible is the financial mismanagement of the general fund up to this point. The fact that the special delegation that is trying to propose solutions is (almost?)entirely composed of people who make these kind of specious arguments is not going to gain my vote. “Trust us” is not a message that will get over the high bar of a 2/3 majority.
3. The parcel tax will be assessed at the full rate ($298/parcel) for another year by the City of Alameda Healtcare District.
Despite zero evidence that it improves the health of Alamedans and indirect evidence that it harms our health, the District Board will waste our money keeping Debbi Stebbins employed. The budget will also be passed even though almost every year it turns out to be more of a fantasy than reality. I bitterly smile every time Stebbins brags about the 2009/2010 budget year which would have been a significant underperformance against budget without an excess of 2 million dollar gift from the state in the form of IGT money. It’s a textbook case on how to mislead when you are a well-respected community leader spinning the facts to fit the noble vision you have of yourself. (See prediction #1 above re: Bonta.)